What if Duration rally bull market: yields fall, long bonds return double digits?
Confirmed disinflation and rate cuts drive a powerful duration rally that delivers double-digit long-bond returns and eases conditions for risk assets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Confirmed disinflation and rate cuts drive a powerful duration rally that delivers double-digit long-bond returns and eases conditions for risk assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Financial conditions ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -6.02–+13.89% · other way -1.63% (n=6) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -2.69–+6.75% · other way +2.29% (n=3) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.19–+0.9% · other way +1.41% (n=6) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.22–+0.68% · other way +0.28% (n=7) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.24–+6.38% · other way +2.08% (n=5) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.68–+2.67% · other way +0.08% (n=4) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.98–+0.58% · other way -0.07% (n=7) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -6bp hist -4.63–+2.23% · other way +11.5% (n=11) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.13–+0.31% · other way +0.57% (n=6) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.06–+1.14% · other way -3.55% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -3.7–+4.52% · other way +4.3% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.13–+10.85% · other way +11.59% (n=3) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.07–+0.27% · other way -3.15% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.7% | 70% | 40 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.4% | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -6.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +10.2% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.9% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |