What if DXY surge on Fed hawkish pivot squeezes the peso?
A renewed Fed hawkish turn drives the dollar higher, pressuring the Mexican peso and other EM currencies as carry trades de-risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A renewed Fed hawkish turn drives the dollar higher, pressuring the Mexican peso and other EM currencies as carry trades de-risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -2.79–-0.64% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -5.92–+1.24% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.7% hist -0.97–-0.23% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.22–+0.05% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -10.79–+1.31% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.69–-0.41% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.48–+0.82% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.64–-0.31% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 9 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.75–+0.06% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -8.45–+2.21% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.56–-0.27% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.78–-0.11% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.44–+0.13% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.5% · 5d -6.9% | 74% | 38 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.2% | 71% | 38 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -5.0% | 63% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.0% | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.3% | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |