What if China's digital-yuan rollout stalls?
An e-CNY stall reinforces dollar primacy: DXY firms modestly, gold and BTC give back diversification premium, and the China-growth ding is marginal. This is a fade of the de-dollarization trade rather than a shock; the analogue is the offshore yuan's slide to record lows in 2022 when CNY-internationalization hopes stalled. Trade is small long DXY / short gold on momentum; the leveraged-crypto (MSTR) drawdown overstates a low-conviction, slow-burn narrative.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. China's flagship digital-currency push fails to gain traction and is quietly curtailed, denting PBOC's cross-border ambitions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.