What if ECB stays hawkish as a gas shock relifts inflation?
A winter energy spike reignites euro-area inflation, forcing the ECB to hold rates higher for longer and pressuring rate-sensitive European equities.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A winter energy spike reignites euro-area inflation, forcing the ECB to hold rates higher for longer and pressuring rate-sensitive European equities. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.02–-0.07% · other way +8.46% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.57–+2.29% · other way +8.29% (n=7) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.78–-0.11% · other way +0.69% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.13–+1.69% · other way +8.55% (n=7) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.59–+-0.0% · other way +1.13% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.38–+2.23% · other way +6.12% (n=8) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.51–+1.63% · other way -9.67% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.42–+0.28% · other way +0.81% (n=10) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.37–+0.68% · other way +0.65% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.9–+10.19% · other way +12.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.81–+8.64% · other way +13.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.19–+0.96% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.28–+0.84% · other way +2.38% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -4.8% | 100% | 3 | 0.55 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.6% | 76% | 17 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 70% | 17 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 68% | 17 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.5% | 68% | 17 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.6% | 68% | 17 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -6.8% | 66% | 15 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.8% · 5d +4.4% | 64% | 10 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.9% | 65% | 17 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.2% | 65% | 17 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 17 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.7% | 60% | 29 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -7.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 11 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +5bp | 56% | 28 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |