What if Egypt fails its next IMF review?
A withheld EFF tranche over stalled divestments re-widens Egyptian eurobond spreads and pressures the EGP — short Egypt USD curve, fade the carry, watch reserves. The rhyme is Egypt's repeated 2022-23 IMF-review slippage that kept spreads elevated until Gulf money arrived. Egypt is funded by the IMF and Gulf sovereigns (UAE/Saudi); a stalled review raises reliance on GCC bilateral support. The generic high-yield/Solana cascade misses the Egypt-specific sovereign-credit and FX transmission.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The IMF withholds its next EFF tranche over stalled state-asset divestments, widening Egyptian eurobond spreads sharply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.