What if EM local-debt foreign-inflow supercycle on index inclusion?
A wave of benchmark index inclusions plus positive real rates draws passive and active foreign money into EM local bonds, compressing yields and firming the currencies.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A wave of benchmark index inclusions plus positive real rates draws passive and active foreign money into EM local bonds, compressing yields and firming the currencies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.