What if Energy-equity capital flight as the glut caps the cycle?
A durable surplus convinces investors the oil cycle has peaked, draining capital from energy equities into transition and tech names; XLE de-rates structurally even on healthy current cash flow.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A durable surplus convinces investors the oil cycle has peaked, draining capital from energy equities into transition and tech names; XLE de-rates structurally even on healthy current cash flow. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.57–+0.45% · other way -2.1% (n=7) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.98–+2.82% · other way -3.2% (n=7) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.87–+0.09% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.06–+0.95% · other way -2.08% (n=7) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.82–+3.95% · other way -4.91% (n=7) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.23–+1.18% · other way +0.0% (n=7) |
| 8 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.12–+10.46% · other way +7.88% (n=7) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.45–+10.36% · other way +11.52% (n=7) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.31–+4.42% · other way -2.46% (n=7) |
| 11 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.94–+0.3% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
| 12 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.86–+7.39% · other way +3.94% (n=7) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.37–+8.68% · other way +0.72% (n=7) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.43–+1.0% · other way -0.1% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 22 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +6.4% · 5d +1.6% | 75% | 16 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -4.8% | 72% | 21 | 0.33 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 71% | 11 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +3bp | 69% | 22 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 64% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +10.1% · 5d +0.0% | 57% | 17 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 58% | 22 | 0.13 | · |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 19 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 19 | 0.12 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +9.1% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 11 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.6% | 54% | 22 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 43% | 19 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 50% | 16 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -8.0% ↺ fades | 50% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |