What if renewed energy price shocks force European governments back into costly household subsidies?
Renewed energy-price shocks force European governments back into costly household and industry subsidies, widening deficits and complicating fiscal-monetary coordination.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed energy-price shocks force European governments back into costly household and industry subsidies, widening deficits and complicating fiscal-monetary coordination. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -1.27–+3.64% · other way +0.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.46–+0.23% · other way +0.46% (n=12) |
| 3 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.88–+4.13% · other way +0.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.83–+0.1% · other way +0.95% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.01–+0.44% · other way +15.17% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.87–+0.23% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.52–+0.3% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.96–+0.11% · other way +1.56% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.69–+0.78% · other way +9.81% (n=10) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.31–+0.54% · other way +0.51% (n=12) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.11–-0.06% · other way -0.78% (n=12) |
| 12 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.82–+4.03% · other way -10.18% (n=8) |
| 13 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.89–+0.26% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -4.8% | 100% | 3 | 0.55 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 70% | 30 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.3% | 67% | 40 | 0.30 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 65% | 31 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.5% | 64% | 33 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.8% | 60% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 31 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.7% | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d 0bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 33 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 48% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d -1bp | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.2% | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.9% | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |