What if companies freeze their software-seat spending?
A CFO-led seat-spending freeze and vendor consolidation cracks net-revenue-retention across mid-cap SaaS — a recession-demand signal, so the cascade pulls in financials, credit spreads and broad beta, not just tech. Analogue is the 2022–23 software-budget tightening when NRR compressed and high-multiple SaaS de-rated hard. Skeptical: the Lehman/COVID analogues overstate it — this is a margin/growth reset, not a solvency event; treat it as a multiple compression in unprofitable SaaS.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. CFOs slash software budgets and consolidate vendors, triggering net-revenue-retention collapse across mid-cap SaaS. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.29–-0.18% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -8.21–+1.79% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.6–-0.04% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -7.91–+2.37% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.81–+0.91% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.5–+1.32% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.35–+0.05% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.54–+0.36% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.82–+0.08% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–-0.15% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.33–-0.03% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.58–+0.88% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.46–+1.06% · other way +2.47% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short: COIN's +10% and the semis' gains come from 2025 tariff-rebound and Iran-strike windows in a BTC/AI bull, not a SaaS-spend freeze — history is regime-biased.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.7% | 75% | 40 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.8% | 75% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -5.4% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -4.9% | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.8% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
Why this probability
SaaS budget tightening ongoing; NRR collapse across mid-caps possible if 2026 macro softens, not base case. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.