What if Erdogan loses power and the lira rallies?
An orthodox opposition win in Turkey sparks a sharp lira relief rally that fades on transition risk — play the initial TRY/Turkish-bank rally, then fade on reserve-rebuild and rate-normalization execution risk. Rhymes with the post-2023 Simsek-orthodoxy stabilization that drew carry inflows once credibility was earned. Transmission: improved access to EU/Gulf funding aids the rebuild; the generic risk-on crypto cascade is a weak proxy for a Turkey-specific carry trade.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Opposition wins presidency pledging orthodox policy, lira rallies sharply then gives back on transition risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.