What if Erdogan loses power and the lira rallies?
An orthodox opposition win in Turkey sparks a sharp lira relief rally that fades on transition risk — play the initial TRY/Turkish-bank rally, then fade on reserve-rebuild and rate-normalization execution risk. Rhymes with the post-2023 Simsek-orthodoxy stabilization that drew carry inflows once credibility was earned. Transmission: improved access to EU/Gulf funding aids the rebuild; the generic risk-on crypto cascade is a weak proxy for a Turkey-specific carry trade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Opposition wins presidency pledging orthodox policy, lira rallies sharply then gives back on transition risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.63–+0.87% |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -7.84–+2.47% |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -7.43–+2.39% |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.01–+0.63% |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.07–+0.97% |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.83–+0.17% |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.21–+0.89% |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.12–+0.67% |
| 10 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.04–+0.35% |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.62–+0.35% |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.55–+1.58% |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.55–+0.38% |
| 14 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.99–+0.93% |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust history-short on TRY: hit-rate 1.0 across clean, recent, on-channel lira-crisis windows; an orthodox-policy rally fades on transition risk exactly as realized, the cascade's long over-reaches.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -0.5% | 72% | 30 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -9.2% | 74% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -4.2% | 65% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 30 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -6.7% | 65% | 22 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 29 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.6% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.2% | 59% | 26 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 57% | 30 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.5% | 57% | 31 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 31 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 31 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Erdogan losing presidency within 1-3y constrained; next vote 2028 and incumbency entrenched. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.