What if a 20% drop in world trade slams euro-area export volumes?
A 20% drop in world trade per the BoE 2025 stress path slams euro-area export volumes, with German and Italian manufacturing orders falling at their fastest pace since 2009.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A 20% drop in world trade per the BoE 2025 stress path slams euro-area export volumes, with German and Italian manufacturing orders falling at their fastest pace since 2009. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.52–-0.48% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.22–+0.06% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.69–-0.32% · other way +30.63% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.13–+0.07% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.34–+1.39% · other way -3.07% (n=10) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.62–+1.63% · other way +5.24% (n=11) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.68–-0.1% · other way +2.69% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.56–+0.76% · other way +5.06% (n=10) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.45–+1.32% · other way -1.4% (n=11) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.7–+1.78% · other way +2.33% (n=11) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.09–+0.86% · other way +1.6% (n=11) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.14–-0.24% · other way +3.24% (n=11) |
| 14 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.44–+0.75% · other way -4.19% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 27 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -2.0% | 77% | 21 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -0.7% | 73% | 18 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 73% | 18 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.4% | 68% | 18 | 0.33 | · |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 18 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 18 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 21 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.6% | 63% | 9 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d 0bp | 60% | 26 | 0.20 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 18 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -9.1% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 6 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +2.5% | 59% | 19 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |