What if EU fiscal-capacity deal mutualizes defense and energy borrowing?
Members agree to jointly fund defense and energy via common bonds, expanding the euro safe-asset pool and structurally compressing periphery fragmentation risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Members agree to jointly fund defense and energy via common bonds, expanding the euro safe-asset pool and structurally compressing periphery fragmentation risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Defense spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -4.24–+9.6% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.08–+0.88% · other way -5.15% (n=6) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.13–+0.37% · other way +0.97% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.91–+4.87% · other way +12.08% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.37–+1.53% · other way -1.09% (n=9) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.73–+2.11% · other way -8.14% (n=8) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.21–+0.3% · other way +0.51% (n=10) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.18–+1.0% · other way -2.18% (n=12) |
| 10 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.77–+0.41% · other way +1.95% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.12–+0.27% · other way -0.58% (n=10) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.07–+0.23% · other way +1.46% (n=10) |
| 13 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.1–+0.24% · other way +5.89% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.51–+2.71% · other way +2.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.4% · 5d +3.5% | 76% | 28 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 39 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 65% | 31 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +8bp | 64% | 39 | 0.24 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.0% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 39 | 0.18 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.7% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.6% | 57% | 33 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -6.0% | 56% | 28 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 31 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 34 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |