What if the EU fines Meta daily over its ad model?
Daily-accruing DMA penalties on Meta are a contained regulatory cost line for one stock, not a systemic shock; the crypto-beta cascade is unrelated drift. Analogue is Meta's prior EU GDPR/DMA fines — headline-large, immaterial to the earnings trajectory, quickly shrugged off. Skeptical: per-day penalties cap out small vs. Meta's cash flow; risk_appetite -0.3 already overweights what is effectively a rounding error to ad revenue.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Commission rules Meta's revised less-personalized ad model still DMA-non-compliant and imposes multi-billion-euro periodic penalty payments accruing per day. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.