What if trade fragmentation drives a 6% cumulative GDP fall across the euro area?
The EBA 2025 adverse trade-fragmentation scenario plays out: euro-area cumulative GDP falls 6.3% as supply-chain rerouting and tariff retaliation crush exports and lift input costs.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The EBA 2025 adverse trade-fragmentation scenario plays out: euro-area cumulative GDP falls 6.3% as supply-chain rerouting and tariff retaliation crush exports and lift input costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.