What if a terms-of-trade collapse drives the euro into a disorderly selloff toward 0.92?
An energy-shock-driven terms-of-trade collapse triggers a disorderly EUR selloff toward 0.92, forcing the ECB to weigh FX-driven inflation against a slumping economy.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An energy-shock-driven terms-of-trade collapse triggers a disorderly EUR selloff toward 0.92, forcing the ECB to weigh FX-driven inflation against a slumping economy. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -5.67–+5.63% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.74–+0.21% · other way +0.26% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.78–-0.23% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 4 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.04–+0.99% · other way +0.31% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.76–-0.08% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.91–+0.07% · other way +5.94% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.84–+1.18% · other way +11.14% (n=11) |
| 9 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.46–+2.89% · other way +0.5% (n=12) |
| 10 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.92–+0.29% · other way -1.25% (n=12) |
| 11 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.97–+0.1% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.18–+2.28% · other way -10.0% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.44–+0.77% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.0–+0.58% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -0.6% | 91% | 11 | 0.69 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +19.6% · 5d +8.3% | 86% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.7% | 91% | 11 | 0.62 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 82% | 11 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 82% | 11 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.8% | 82% | 11 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -0.9% | 76% | 17 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 73% | 11 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +1.1% | 73% | 11 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -4.0% | 69% | 16 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.5% | 73% | 11 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -7.6% ↺ fades | 71% | 7 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.7% | 63% | 24 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 11 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |