What if the euro falls back below parity with the dollar?
A widening growth and rate gap versus the US drives EUR/USD back below parity, the weakest since 2022, amplifying euro-area imported inflation and energy-import costs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A widening growth and rate gap versus the US drives EUR/USD back below parity, the weakest since 2022, amplifying euro-area imported inflation and energy-import costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.65–+0.26% · other way +0.26% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -5.51–+5.87% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 3 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.02–+0.95% · other way +0.31% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.64–-0.14% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.67–-0.03% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.88–+0.31% · other way -1.25% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.74–+0.17% · other way +5.94% (n=11) |
| 9 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.34–+2.97% · other way +0.5% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.69–+1.27% · other way +11.14% (n=11) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.43–+0.78% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 12 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.91–+0.13% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 13 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.7–+1.81% · other way +0.12% (n=12) |
| 14 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.6–+0.05% · other way +0.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -0.6% | 91% | 11 | 0.69 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +19.6% · 5d +8.3% | 86% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.7% | 91% | 11 | 0.62 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 82% | 11 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 82% | 11 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.8% | 82% | 11 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 73% | 11 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +1.1% | 73% | 11 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -7.6% ↺ fades | 71% | 7 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.7% | 63% | 24 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 11 | 0.22 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +2.2% | 55% | 11 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 9 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 11 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |