What if EUR/USD slides toward parity on a war-and-gas shock?
An escalation plus a winter gas spike revives the European energy-import and recession discount, pushing EUR/USD back toward parity as the dollar bids.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An escalation plus a winter gas spike revives the European energy-import and recession discount, pushing EUR/USD back toward parity as the dollar bids. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.2% hist +0.66–+5.17% · other way -9.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -2.88–+1.41% · other way +11.86% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.55–-0.32% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -3.37–+0.42% · other way +8.87% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -4.19–+6.24% · other way -1.88% (n=11) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.88–-0.44% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.12–+0.64% · other way +4.46% (n=11) |
| 9 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.37–+8.79% · other way +17.37% (n=10) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.76–-0.27% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.87–-0.13% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.91–-0.17% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 13 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.25–+0.57% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.6–-0.08% · other way +0.74% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 31 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -3.0% | 73% | 31 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.2% | 69% | 33 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.3% | 70% | 38 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.0% · 5d +2.2% | 69% | 15 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 38 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -4.6% | 66% | 32 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +2.5% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 38 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.2% | 64% | 33 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.7% | 63% | 33 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 28 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -4.0% | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.1% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |