What if a fresh energy and geopolitical shock sends euro-area confidence to GFC-era lows?
A renewed energy and geopolitical shock sends euro-area consumer and business confidence to GFC-era lows, freezing investment and front-running a demand-led downturn.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A renewed energy and geopolitical shock sends euro-area consumer and business confidence to GFC-era lows, freezing investment and front-running a demand-led downturn. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.8% hist +0.37–+6.89% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.51–-0.78% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.48–+4.2% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.06–-0.12% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.09–-0.1% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.31–-0.47% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -9.03–+1.14% · other way +5.13% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.79–+0.59% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.89–+1.22% · other way +5.17% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.92–-0.16% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.58–-0.3% · other way +0.41% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.96–-0.12% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.45–+8.99% · other way +21.23% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -1.4% | 71% | 29 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.1% · 5d -6.0% | 73% | 22 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 65% | 28 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.8% · 5d +4.2% | 63% | 31 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.6% · 5d +2.1% | 62% | 19 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 28 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.6% | 65% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.7% | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 28 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 28 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 29 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 28 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 29 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.0% | 62% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |