What if the ECB faces an acute stagflation bind where any rate path worsens either inflation or recession?
The ECB faces an acute stagflation bind as a supply shock lifts inflation while crushing growth, with any rate path worsening either the inflation or the recession leg.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The ECB faces an acute stagflation bind as a supply shock lifts inflation while crushing growth, with any rate path worsening either the inflation or the recession leg. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -5.99–+1.65% · other way +5.12% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -5.9–+3.95% · other way +10.09% (n=8) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.94–-0.23% · other way -1.39% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -8.38–+4.39% · other way +2.43% (n=9) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -5.4–+3.12% · other way +11.41% (n=8) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.07–-0.26% · other way -1.16% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.9% hist -2.77–+2.49% · other way -5.88% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.05–+0.39% · other way +2.98% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.1–+3.24% · other way +22.44% (n=6) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.87–+0.33% · other way +1.68% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.59–+0.07% · other way -0.63% (n=9) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -2.22–+13.97% · other way +12.9% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.12–+0.93% · other way -0.48% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.2% | 73% | 25 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.4% | 73% | 14 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.8% | 70% | 14 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.9% · 5d -8.8% | 68% | 10 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.2% | 68% | 18 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -6.2% | 70% | 14 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.6% | 67% | 14 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +4bp | 62% | 23 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 63% | 14 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -6.6% · 5d -6.4% | 63% | 14 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.8% | 63% | 14 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -5.9% | 61% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.0% | 60% | 14 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 16 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |