What if a sharp euro depreciation re-ignites euro-area goods inflation?
A sharp EUR depreciation lifts the euro-area import-price index and re-ignites goods inflation, undoing months of disinflation as the currency channel feeds back into HICP.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A sharp EUR depreciation lifts the euro-area import-price index and re-ignites goods inflation, undoing months of disinflation as the currency channel feeds back into HICP. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.6–+0.36% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 2 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.18–+1.17% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.33–+1.19% · other way +3.25% (n=12) |
| 4 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.29–+0.53% · other way -1.5% (n=12) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -7.14–+15.43% · other way -3.7% (n=12) |
| 6 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.22–+7.92% · other way -6.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -8.82–+9.19% · other way +7.23% (n=12) |
| 8 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.04–+0.5% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 9 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.42–-0.18% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.77–+0.21% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.51–+13.89% · other way +2.16% (n=10) |
| 12 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.68–+0.09% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 13 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.42–-0.08% · other way +1.01% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.09–+0.86% · other way +0.28% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 10 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +14.0% · 5d +7.5% | 100% | 2 | 0.69 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.5% | 100% | 3 | 0.69 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.7% | 100% | 3 | 0.60 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -8.6% ↺ fades | 100% | 2 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.7% | 71% | 10 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +1.7% | 67% | 3 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 3 | 0.23 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.3% · 5d +11.8% | 67% | 3 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +1.3% | 67% | 3 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.5% | 67% | 3 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.7% | 67% | 3 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 67% | 3 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +9bp | 47% | 8 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +7bp | 38% | 10 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |