What if Falling DXY and stable commodities deliver an EM real-income boost?
A softer dollar with steady commodity prices lifts EM real purchasing power and import affordability, supporting consumption, currencies and the disinflation path.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A softer dollar with steady commodity prices lifts EM real purchasing power and import affordability, supporting consumption, currencies and the disinflation path. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · EM currencies ▲ · Consumer spending ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.18–+0.62% · other way -8.89% (n=5) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.12–+0.42% · other way -0.8% (n=5) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -6.08–+14.56% · other way -3.81% (n=5) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.68–+5.97% · other way +2.01% (n=4) |
| 5 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.35–-0.11% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.18–+0.3% · other way -1.32% (n=5) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.84–+2.51% · other way +1.11% (n=5) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.02–+0.54% · other way -0.92% (n=5) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.02–+0.41% · other way +0.8% (n=6) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.5–+6.06% · other way +2.26% (n=5) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.1–+0.79% · other way -3.47% (n=5) |
| 13 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.02–+0.2% · other way -1.77% (n=5) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist +-0.0–+0.17% · other way -1.23% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 39 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +2bp | 67% | 39 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.9% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.20 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |