What if Falling jet-fuel crack spreads supercharge airline margins?
A drop in jet-fuel crack spreads and crude cuts the largest variable cost, expanding airline margins and driving consensus earnings upgrades across the group.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A drop in jet-fuel crack spreads and crude cuts the largest variable cost, expanding airline margins and driving consensus earnings upgrades across the group. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Jet fuel ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.25–+6.27% · other way +5.06% (n=9) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.96–+10.09% · other way +0.9% (n=9) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.18–+3.88% · other way +0.5% (n=9) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -6.05–+14.46% · other way +0.14% (n=9) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.06–+0.62% · other way +0.19% (n=9) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.7–+8.59% · other way +0.02% (n=9) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.73–+2.02% · other way +4.57% (n=9) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.89–+7.18% · other way +0.27% (n=9) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.04–+0.26% · other way -0.01% (n=9) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.14–+0.56% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -18.1–+24.87% · other way +4.74% (n=8) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.06–+0.33% · other way -2.24% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.2% · 5d +2.1% | 81% | 15 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +26.2% · 5d +7.5% | 69% | 7 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +13.7% · 5d +1.3% | 65% | 16 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.7% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 68% | 10 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -4.0% | 68% | 18 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 66% | 18 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 19 | 0.21 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 19 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 17 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -8.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 10 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.1% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 17 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.5% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 47% | 17 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.3% | 47% | 17 | 0.00 | · |