What if Fed ends QT and pivots to a passive balance-sheet runoff stop?
With reserves nearing the ample floor, the Fed halts quantitative tightening and lets the balance sheet stabilize, relieving funding pressure and supporting risk assets via easier liquidity.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. With reserves nearing the ample floor, the Fed halts quantitative tightening and lets the balance sheet stabilize, relieving funding pressure and supporting risk assets via easier liquidity. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Fed policy path ▼ · Financial conditions ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.