What if CBAM inclusion of fertiliser raises global food-input prices?
Inclusion of fertiliser in CBAM raises costs for carbon-intensive ammonia exporters, pressuring EM producers and feeding through to global fertiliser and food-input prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Inclusion of fertiliser in CBAM raises costs for carbon-intensive ammonia exporters, pressuring EM producers and feeding through to global fertiliser and food-input prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Fertilizer cost ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.11–-0.33% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.9–-0.37% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.87–-0.28% · other way +2.18% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.76–-0.29% · other way +2.02% (n=12) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.64–+0.12% · other way -1.25% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.66–-0.35% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.98–-0.09% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.47–-0.22% · other way -1.86% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.24–+1.96% · other way -1.79% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.77–+0.17% · other way +4.47% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.83–+1.07% · other way +1.54% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.52–+0.69% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.55–+1.04% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.12–+0.84% · other way -1.53% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -3.7% | 75% | 35 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.5% | 71% | 34 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.7% | 69% | 34 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -5.2% | 68% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 34 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 66% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.5% | 67% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.0% | 60% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |