What if Flemish nationalists push to split Belgium apart?
A Flemish-led Belgian partition is a Belgian-sovereign (OLO) and EU-institutional trade: debt-apportionment uncertainty widens OLO-Bund spreads and questions Brussels' role as the EU capital. No modern analogue; the nearest rhyme is Czechoslovakia's 1993 'velvet divorce' (orderly, limited market impact) versus the disorderly Catalonia/Grexit fear premia. Belgium's ~105% debt/GDP and bondholder base make redenomination the real risk — watch OLO spreads, not the Nasdaq.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Flemish nationalists win majority and push partition, Belgian debt and EU-institution stability questioned. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.