What if Food-inflation relapse: harvest shocks reignite headline CPI?
Back-to-back harvest failures push food prices sharply higher, reigniting headline inflation and squeezing low-income consumers, a regressive shock that dents discretionary demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Back-to-back harvest failures push food prices sharply higher, reigniting headline inflation and squeezing low-income consumers, a regressive shock that dents discretionary demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.31–+4.54% · other way -2.24% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.41–+0.36% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.56–+0.47% · other way +32.94% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.33–+3.14% · other way +3.85% (n=11) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.49–+0.66% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 7 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.02–+0.47% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.75–+5.62% · other way -4.5% (n=12) |
| 9 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.06–+0.27% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.15–+3.44% · other way +8.53% (n=11) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–+0.43% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.69–+0.81% · other way -0.59% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.57–+6.4% · other way +3.4% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -0.61–+4.13% · other way +4.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +8.1% | 63% | 19 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 18 | 0.21 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 8 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 61% | 18 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 20 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.8% | 57% | 7 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -3.4% | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.9% | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.8% | 50% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 40% | 10 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |