What if indexed wage rises push French unit labour costs higher and entrench above-target inflation?
Indexed minimum-wage rises and tight services labour markets push French unit labour costs higher, entrenching above-target inflation and squeezing corporate margins.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Indexed minimum-wage rises and tight services labour markets push French unit labour costs higher, entrenching above-target inflation and squeezing corporate margins. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -1.47–+11.56% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.75–+-0.0% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.4–+0.23% · other way +0.34% (n=12) |
| 4 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -0.01–+6.99% · other way +3.3% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–-0.14% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.66–+0.59% · other way +27.71% (n=12) |
| 7 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–+0.02% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–+0.11% · other way +5.06% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.27–+1.08% · other way -8.23% (n=10) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.39–+1.59% · other way -8.46% (n=12) |
| 12 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +3bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.26–+1.55% · other way +0.49% (n=12) |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.07–+0.46% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -6.0% | 74% | 26 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -5.7% | 63% | 30 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -6.6% | 58% | 29 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 54% | 32 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.1% · 5d +9.2% | 54% | 33 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 54% | 32 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.7% | 54% | 32 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 54% | 32 | 0.06 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 31 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |