France — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning France and its globally‑connected markets.
75 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
52%1–3 years
What if CFA franc reform deal calms West African markets?
37%0–6 months
What if Moody's strips France of another notch?
37%1–3 years
What if S&P cuts France toward an A- rating?
37%1–3 years
What if International long-haul demand boom lifts wide-body carrier profits?
34%1–3 years
What if France delivers credible multi-year consolidation, OAT re-rates?
29%6–18 months
What if France forms a stable government, OAT-Bund spread re-compresses?
27%1–3 years
What if France reinstates the age-64 pension reform after 2027?
27%0–6 months
What if a police killing ignites a nationwide banlieue uprising in France?
27%1–3 years
What if dengue establishes itself in Paris and northern France?
26%1–3 years
What if France-led EU nuclear alliance locks up uranium offtake?
25%0–6 months
What if fresh reactor cracks force more of France's EDF fleet offline?
25%0–6 months
What if EU drought clips French and German soft-wheat exports?
25%6–18 months
What if OAT-Bund spread blows past 100bp on French political deadlock?
23%6–18 months
What if France scraps its pension reform for good?
23%6–18 months
What if Mali ditches French CFA reserves for gold-backed plan?
22%6–18 months
What if French far-right budget standoff widens OAT-Bund spread?
21%6–18 months
What if Niger and Mali coup risk severs French uranium supply?
21%6–18 months
What if French pension-reform reversal spooks OAT investors?
20%0–6 months
What if a French downgrade reignites bank-sovereign loop fears?
19%1–3 years
What if France stability-and-reform deal narrows the OAT-Bund spread (good)?
18%0–6 months
What if the far-right National Rally takes power in Paris?
18%0–6 months
What if Pakistan exits its IMF program and defaults?
18%1–3 years
What if Paris Club relevance fades as China and Gulf creditors dominate?
18%1–3 years
What if France loses a notch as deficit overshoots EU limits again?
18%6–18 months
What if Bund safe-haven bid surges as DM fiscal fears favor German paper?
18%1–3 years
What if France pension-reform protests stall fiscal consolidation?
17%1–3 years
What if a euro-area sovereign-debt blowout sparked contagion?
17%6–18 months
What if Niger nationalizes uranium, Western fuel tightens?
17%6–18 months
What if ECB hawkish hold collides with a fiscal-political shock in France?
16%0–6 months
What if a Sierra megafire overruns the Lake Tahoe corridor?
16%1–3 years
What if Single-limb CAC stress-test: aggregated vote forced over a holdout bloc?
15%0–6 months
What if the ECB deploys its crisis tool to defend France?
15%1–3 years
What if France's National Rally wins an outright majority?
15%6–18 months
What if Niger sells seized French uranium to Russia?
15%6–18 months
What if France slips into EU excessive-deficit procedure, OAT cheapens?
15%6–18 months
What if France downgraded to AA-, OAT trades like a soft-core periphery?
15%1–3 years
What if Belgium fiscal slippage drags the semi-core wider with France?
15%1–3 years
What if Synchronized G7 bear-steepening as deficits and supply align?
15%6–18 months
What if OAT slips out of the core index club, forced selling widens spreads?
15%6–18 months
What if France social unrest over austerity reignites OAT pressure?
14%1–3 years
What if French bank doom-loop fear emerges as OAT losses hit lenders?
13%6–18 months
What if France slides into stagflation as fiscal consolidation stalls growth near zero?
13%1–3 years
What if Synchronized DM term-premium shock repriced across all G7 curves?
12%1–3 years
What if French snap election delivers a fiscal stalemate, OAT-Bund tops 120bp?
11%6–18 months
What if French corporate investment freezes on high financing costs and political uncertainty?
11%1–3 years
What if drought-driven soil subsidence cracks foundations across UK and Australian clay regions?
10%6–18 months
What if Brussels fines France and Italy for breaching deficit rules?
10%6–18 months
What if a French president invokes emergency powers amid deadlock?
10%1–3 years
What if La Defense vacancy rises and Greater Paris office values fall 30%?
10%6–18 months
What if French political deadlock pushes the OAT-Bund spread above 100bp?
10%1–3 years
What if France's rearmament spending widens its deficit past 6% of GDP?
10%1–3 years
What if France's 6%-of-GDP deficit forces austerity into a weakening economy?
10%1–3 years
What if soaring costs to maintain France's ageing nuclear fleet drag on growth and public finances?
10%6–18 months
What if indexed wage rises push French unit labour costs higher and entrench above-target inflation?
10%1–3 years
What if Mediterranean firestorm devastates southern France/Iberia?
9%0–6 months
What if a French snap election pushes the OAT-Bund spread to multi-decade wides?
9%6–18 months
What if widespread French reactor outages remove baseload and force costly gas-fired generation?
8%1–3 years
What if France's housing soft landing fails and mortgage origination freezes?
8%1–3 years
What if housing stress concentrates in floating-rate economies while fixed-rate markets lag?
8%6–18 months
What if a sharp OAT selloff drives mark-to-market losses across French banks?
8%6–18 months
What if extended French nuclear outages turn France into a net power importer?
8%6–18 months
What if French OAT-Bund spreads widen past 90bp on deficit and political instability concerns?
7%1–3 years
What if French retail and shopping-center CRE values fall as consumption weakens?
7%1–3 years
What if France's new-build market freezes as financing and usury caps stall sales?
7%1–3 years
What if France loses its AA rating as deficits exceed 6% of GDP?
7%1–3 years
What if French OAT spreads durably exceed Spain's, ending France's semi-core status?
7%6–18 months
What if the OAT-Bund spread settles structurally above 120bp as France's fiscal credibility erodes?
7%6–18 months
What if French political gridlock and fiscal slippage trigger a sharp CAC 40 de-rating?
6%1–3 years
What if France loses its AA credit rating and OAT spreads exceed 150bp?
6%1–3 years
What if Belgium's high debt and political deadlock push its spread toward periphery levels?
6%1–3 years
What if France's 10-year OAT yield converges toward Italian levels?
6%1–3 years
What if sovereign CDS-bond basis blows out for France and Italy during fragmentation stress?
6%0–6 months
What if Italy and France face simultaneous fiscal-political spread shocks?
6%1–3 years
What if France's debt-to-GDP breaches 120% with no credible path back?
6%0–6 months
What if widespread French strikes at nuclear plants and refineries disrupt fuel and power supply?