What if Gas-glut crash blows up a leveraged NG long, deepens the rout?
A warm-weather collapse in Henry Hub forces liquidation of a crowded leveraged gas-long fund, accelerating the sell-off in NG futures and gas-equity proxies in a self-reinforcing spiral.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A warm-weather collapse in Henry Hub forces liquidation of a crowded leveraged gas-long fund, accelerating the sell-off in NG futures and gas-equity proxies in a self-reinforcing spiral. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.94–+0.04% · other way +4.09% (n=11) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.23–+1.77% · other way -3.86% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.59–+3.02% · other way +3.67% (n=8) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.36–+0.4% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.0–+1.62% · other way +8.68% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.75–+0.79% · other way +3.79% (n=8) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.22–+2.2% · other way +5.05% (n=8) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.3–+0.39% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.22 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.2% | 59% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d +1.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 52% | 35 | 0.04 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -4.2% | 52% | 18 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 51% | 38 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -7.1% ↺ fades | 44% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 45% | 24 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |