What if Gas glut craters EQT and Expand Energy free cash flow?
A sustained Henry Hub slide below $2.50 collapses hedged-roll-off cash flow for gas-weighted producers like EQT and Expand, pressuring their equities and forcing capex and buyback cuts.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sustained Henry Hub slide below $2.50 collapses hedged-roll-off cash flow for gas-weighted producers like EQT and Expand, pressuring their equities and forcing capex and buyback cuts. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.39–+0.24% · other way +9.01% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.72–+0.87% · other way +10.95% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–-0.11% · other way +3.67% (n=8) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–-0.02% · other way -0.39% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.98–+1.09% · other way +3.79% (n=8) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.3–+0.2% · other way +5.05% (n=8) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.87–+2.02% · other way -5.65% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.28–+0.4% · other way +0.16% (n=11) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.06–+0.28% · other way +0.88% (n=11) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.52–+0.15% · other way -2.14% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.31–+0.47% · other way -0.37% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -3.2% | 69% | 22 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.0% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.0% | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -9.7% | 60% | 15 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -3.0% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 44% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 38% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.4% | 49% | 16 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.4% | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 43% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |