What if Gas-spike inflation print revives a Fed-hawkish energy scare?
A sharp winter gas and heating-cost spike feeds into headline CPI, reviving fears the Fed stays restrictive longer; real yields and the dollar firm while rate-sensitive risk assets wobble.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sharp winter gas and heating-cost spike feeds into headline CPI, reviving fears the Fed stays restrictive longer; real yields and the dollar firm while rate-sensitive risk assets wobble. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.31–+0.78% · other way +17.37% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.8–-0.15% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.56–-0.01% · other way -0.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.94–+5.06% · other way +8.42% (n=8) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist -1.07–+13.27% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.18–+0.08% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.32–+0.46% · other way +3.91% (n=9) |
| 8 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -1.76–+13.0% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.53–+0.37% · other way +8.64% (n=8) |
| 11 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.69–+1.94% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.0–+0.59% · other way -8.5% (n=12) |
| 13 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.49–+1.63% · other way -13.96% (n=5) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.08–+0.26% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -4.9% | 65% | 36 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -4.1% | 64% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 36 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.3% | 60% | 25 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +3bp | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 15 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -6.3% | 60% | 5 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.8% | 53% | 36 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |