What if multiple GCC central banks must burn reserves and raise rates to defend dollar pegs together?
A combined low-oil and capital-outflow shock forces multiple GCC central banks to raise rates in lockstep with the Fed and burn reserves to defend dollar pegs simultaneously.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A combined low-oil and capital-outflow shock forces multiple GCC central banks to raise rates in lockstep with the Fed and burn reserves to defend dollar pegs simultaneously. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.