What if Generational housing-wealth transfer sustains a durable renovation cycle?
Inherited and accumulated home equity funds a long renovation-and-upgrade cycle even as moving stays subdued, supporting home-improvement retail, contractors and durables demand for years.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Inherited and accumulated home equity funds a long renovation-and-upgrade cycle even as moving stays subdued, supporting home-improvement retail, contractors and durables demand for years. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Mortgage rates ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.