What if high energy costs drive German industry abroad?
Energy-cost deindustrialization is a slow euro-negative, EU-equity-relative-underperformance grind, not a China-growth bid: short EU chemicals/Mittelstand exporters and EUR as BASF-type capacity moves to the US Gulf and Asia. The rhyme is the 2022-23 European gas shock that permanently shut ammonia/chemical capacity. The cascade is backwards — it routes a German competitiveness loss into a copper and Alibaba RALLY via china_growth; the real transmission is German output down, EUR weaker, and US/Chinese chemical rivals winning share.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. BASF and chemicals giants relocate abroad as power prices stay elevated, hollowing the Mittelstand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.