What if high energy costs drive German industry abroad?
Energy-cost deindustrialization is a slow euro-negative, EU-equity-relative-underperformance grind, not a China-growth bid: short EU chemicals/Mittelstand exporters and EUR as BASF-type capacity moves to the US Gulf and Asia. The rhyme is the 2022-23 European gas shock that permanently shut ammonia/chemical capacity. The cascade is backwards — it routes a German competitiveness loss into a copper and Alibaba RALLY via china_growth; the real transmission is German output down, EUR weaker, and US/Chinese chemical rivals winning share.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. BASF and chemicals giants relocate abroad as power prices stay elevated, hollowing the Mittelstand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.63–+0.27% · other way +30.99% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -11.85–+1.31% · other way -2.9% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.45–-0.06% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.98–+1.35% · other way +5.98% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.34–+0.41% · other way +1.58% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.45–+0.44% · other way +7.69% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.01–+0.46% · other way -2.38% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.58–+0.16% · other way +0.49% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.92–+0.27% · other way +24.45% (n=12) |
| 11 | KOSPI 200 KR200on Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.5% · other way +0.8% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–+0.36% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nifty 50 NIFTYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.73–+0.43% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 14 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.73–+0.22% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT NVDA: the +5.3% rests on a thin, ancient sample (2000 dot-com, 2008, 2020 COVID) whose prints were all deeply negative — stale base rate contradicting its own sign.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.4% · 5d -6.4% | 77% | 28 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -5.8% | 70% | 29 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 33 | 0.27 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.7% | 67% | 36 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NIFTY NIFTY | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 33 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +1.6% | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 33 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 27 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +6bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.2% | 56% | 31 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 33 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 46% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 38% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Already underway: high power costs, BASF cutbacks and relocations ongoing; structural trend over 1-3y is likely. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.