What if Germany's export model finally breaks?
Chinese competition gutting German auto/machinery exports into a third recession year is a structural-share-loss story — short German exporters/DAX industrials; the China-asset-up cascade again reflects Beijing taking the share. Rhymes with the post-2015 erosion of German machinery dominance and the 2024 China-EV surge that pressured European autos. Transmission: Germany loses to Chinese OEMs and machine builders, so China growth and industrial metals firm as Germany contracts. Forward angle: unlike past cyclical German downturns, this is permanent competitive displacement, so the trade is a secular underweight, not a recovery play.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Chinese competition guts auto and machinery exports, pushing Germany into a third recession year. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.