What if GEV sold-out-to-2030 backlog signals turbine supply bottleneck?
GE Vernova's turbine slots sold through 2030 reveal a supply ceiling that delays new firm capacity, raising near-term reliability risk and forcing buyers toward costly behind-the-meter alternatives.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. GE Vernova's turbine slots sold through 2030 reveal a supply ceiling that delays new firm capacity, raising near-term reliability risk and forcing buyers toward costly behind-the-meter alternatives. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.46–+8.2% · other way -1.2% (n=9) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +-0.0–+0.25% · other way +7.24% (n=12) |
| 3 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -6.19–+1.83% · other way +3.45% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.24–+0.05% · other way +20.69% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.74–+0.29% · other way +6.51% (n=9) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.17–+0.39% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.72–+0.86% · other way +10.85% (n=9) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.49–+0.24% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.28–+0.46% · other way +1.79% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -3.05–+7.53% · other way +8.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -2.21–+6.04% · other way +10.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | LONG | +8.3% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 69% | 13 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -4.1% | 64% | 25 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 68% | 28 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.9% · 5d +5.1% | 62% | 26 | 0.18 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 25 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.7% | 56% | 25 | 0.11 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 23 | 0.10 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 25 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 36 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +3bp | 52% | 36 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 25 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 25 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.6% | 43% | 14 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 44% | 16 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |