What if Giant Kazakh-Mongolian copper discovery reshapes 2030s supply?
A tier-one copper-gold porphyry discovery on the scale of Oyu Tolgoi promises millions of tonnes of new supply late-decade, capping long-dated copper price expectations.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A tier-one copper-gold porphyry discovery on the scale of Oyu Tolgoi promises millions of tonnes of new supply late-decade, capping long-dated copper price expectations. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.01–+0.11% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–-0.08% · other way -4.02% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.12–+1.4% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.57–+12.86% · other way -2.01% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.14–+0.15% · other way +0.64% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 73% | 38 | 0.35 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.8% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.1% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -6.8% | 56% | 37 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.06 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -4.2% | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.2% | 51% | 38 | 0.02 | · |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |