What if a Kazakh disruption set off a uranium supply shock?
A Kazakh (Kazatomprom) disruption is a genuine uranium supply shock: Kazakhstan is ~40% of global mine supply, so spot U3O8 and nuclear-fuel names gap as utilities scramble to re-source, with a modest energy-cost spillover to the euro. The analogue mix fits — the Jul-2023 Niger coup and 2023-24 Sprott-driven uranium run both spiked spot. Forward angle: utilities run thin inventories and routing via Russia adds sanction risk, so a Kazakh halt prices worse than headline tonnage implies — the cleanest trade is spot uranium/Cameco, not the broad energy complex.
18%
our model probability over 1–3 years
prediction markets — wisdom of the crowd
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◎ Empirically anchored 18%· 90% range 8–28%· 40 analogues · measured class energy 99% in 3 yr · 3% held back for the unknownhow we built this number — every step
Measured class rate — energy ≈1.4869/yr → 99% in 3 yr99%
Analyst prior · editorial share 18% of the class18%
Pooled · weight 87%18%
Crowd — no liquid market—
Reserve 3% · no extremizing (×1.0)18%
Published18%
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A Kazakh disruption causes a uranium supply shock, spiking nuclear-fuel prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
Market
Class
Projected move
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
Niger coup d'etat 2023-07↗PJM grid emergency during Winter Storm Elliott 2022-12↗Texas grid failure during Winter Storm Uri 2021-02↗Norilsk Nickel Arctic diesel spill 2020-05↗Crude oil all-time high 2008-07↗Henry Hub natural gas spot price peaks during 2008 commodity boom 2008-07↗Platinum hits all-time record near $2,290 on South African power crisis 2008-03↗South Africa Eskom power emergency spikes platinum/PGMs 2008-01↗Amaranth Advisors natural-gas blowup 2006-09↗Northeast blackout cascading grid failure hits ~55 million 2003-08↗Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 1979-12↗Iran hostage crisis / US freezes Iranian assets 1979-11↗1979 Iranian Revolution oil shock 1979-01↗US intervention removes Maduro in Venezuela 2026-01↗Gold tops $4,000 and silver spikes past $50 in historic squeeze 2025-10↗Fatal mud-rush halts Freeport's Grasberg, tightening copper supply 2025-09↗Trump's 50% copper tariff sends Comex copper to a record 2025-07↗Platinum hits an 11-year high on Chinese jewelry demand and deficit 2025-06↗Israel strikes Iran — Operation Rising Lion 2025-06↗Anglo American demerges Valterra Platinum 2025-06↗Iberian Peninsula total blackout 2025-04↗Gold tops $3,000 for the first time amid tariff and rate-cut fears 2025-03↗DRC suspends cobalt exports 2025-02↗DeepSeek shock crushes AI-power utilities Vistra and Constellation 2025-01↗Russian gas transit through Ukraine ends 2025-01↗Henry Hub natural gas falls to an all-time inflation-adjusted low on record output 2024-11↗Palladium jumps after US pushes G7 sanctions on Russian metal 2024-10↗October 2024 Iranian ballistic-missile attack on Israel 2024-10↗Constellation-Microsoft Three Mile Island restart powers AI-utility trade 2024-09↗Hezbollah pager and device explosions across Lebanon 2024-09↗Gold tops $2,500 for the first time on Fed rate-cut bets 2024-08↗India slashes gold import duty from 15% to 6% in 2024 budget 2024-07↗BHP abandons $49bn takeover bid for Anglo American 2024-05↗Comex copper hits record on New York short squeeze 2024-05↗April 2024 Iranian drone-and-missile barrage on Israel 2024-04↗Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian refineries, lifting crude and gasoline 2024-03↗Biden administration pauses US LNG export approvals 2024-01↗Panama Supreme Court voids Cobre Panama copper concession 2023-11↗Newmont completes $15bn Newcrest takeover to lead global gold 2023-11↗RTX takes $3B charge on Pratt & Whitney GTF engine flaw 2023-09↗
Asset
History says
Abnormal (20d · 5d)
Hit
n
Confidence
vs cascade
High-yield creditHYG
SHORT
-0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades
67%
35
0.25
·
VolatilityVIX
LONG
+2.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades
64%
37
0.21
·
BitcoinBTC
SHORT
-1.3% · 5d -1.8%
63%
31
0.18
·
GoldXAU
LONG
+0.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades
55%
37
0.10
·
10y yieldDGS10
LONG
+7bp · 5d +4bp
55%
40
0.07
·
US dollarDXY
LONG
+0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades
51%
40
0.02
·
Why this probability
Uranium tight, but a specific Kazakh disruption is a narrower trigger. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.