What if a Kazakh disruption set off a uranium supply shock?
A Kazakh (Kazatomprom) disruption is a genuine uranium supply shock: Kazakhstan is ~40% of global mine supply, so spot U3O8 and nuclear-fuel names gap as utilities scramble to re-source, with a modest energy-cost spillover to the euro. The analogue mix fits — the Jul-2023 Niger coup and 2023-24 Sprott-driven uranium run both spiked spot. Forward angle: utilities run thin inventories and routing via Russia adds sanction risk, so a Kazakh halt prices worse than headline tonnage implies — the cleanest trade is spot uranium/Cameco, not the broad energy complex.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A Kazakh disruption causes a uranium supply shock, spiking nuclear-fuel prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.