What if a global identity provider locks everyone out at once?
A global identity-federation outage locking users out of banking/SaaS is a sharp availability shock with broad reach but short duration — risk-off ticks up, reverses on restoration. Rhymes again with the CrowdStrike July-2024 event, where worldwide lockouts caused operational chaos but a fast equity recovery. Forward angle: the lasting signal is concentration risk in a few IdP providers, nudging enterprise spend toward redundant auth — not a market-level de-rate.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An identity-federation outage locks users out of banking, email, and SaaS worldwide for an extended window. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.