What if Global industrial recession sinks the whole base-metals complex?
Synchronized manufacturing contraction across China, Europe and the US crushes copper, zinc and aluminium demand; base metals fall together into surplus.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Synchronized manufacturing contraction across China, Europe and the US crushes copper, zinc and aluminium demand; base metals fall together into surplus. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.7–+0.13% · other way +1.24% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.63–+0.7% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.77–+0.22% · other way +28.15% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.21–+0.28% · other way +2.25% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -6.19–+1.33% · other way +4.57% (n=10) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.45–-0.17% · other way -0.44% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.56–+0.27% · other way +6.08% (n=10) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.18–+3.67% · other way +1.77% (n=11) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.44–-0.07% · other way +0.05% (n=11) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.3–+0.24% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–+0.31% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–+0.45% · other way -0.57% (n=11) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.04–+0.59% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.3% | 70% | 33 | 0.36 | · |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 68% | 33 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -6.5% | 70% | 25 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 33 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -6.0% | 67% | 25 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.5% | 58% | 23 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XPD XPD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |