What if Global LNG glut compresses Gulf gas-exporter margins?
A 2026-28 LNG surplus from Qatar, the US and others compresses gas-export margins across Gulf liquefiers, trimming surpluses for Qatar and UAE even as volumes rise.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A 2026-28 LNG surplus from Qatar, the US and others compresses gas-export margins across Gulf liquefiers, trimming surpluses for Qatar and UAE even as volumes rise. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · European energy ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.02–+0.35% · other way -10.78% (n=8) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.91–+3.88% · other way +8.74% (n=7) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.76–+6.17% · other way +20.79% (n=8) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.46–+0.4% · other way +10.04% (n=7) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.13–+0.58% · other way -1.47% (n=9) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.86–+0.35% · other way -1.71% (n=8) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.58–+1.37% · other way +12.53% (n=7) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.18–+0.58% · other way -0.98% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 35 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 35 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 35 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 52% | 38 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.8% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 35 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 52% | 35 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.7% · 5d -6.1% ↺ fades | 50% | 19 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -5.1% | 49% | 20 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 39% | 27 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 48% | 37 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.0% | 38% | 35 | 0.00 | · |