What if Asian LNG demand slump leaves Qatari cargoes chasing buyers?
Weak Chinese and Asian gas demand into a supply wave leaves Qatari spot cargoes competing on price, compressing realized margins and the emirate's projected windfall.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Weak Chinese and Asian gas demand into a supply wave leaves Qatari spot cargoes competing on price, compressing realized margins and the emirate's projected windfall. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · China growth ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.1–+1.49% · other way +4.09% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.27–+0.32% · other way -0.14% (n=11) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–+-0.0% · other way +0.45% (n=11) |
| 4 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.12–-0.04% · other way -3.08% (n=8) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.71–+1.19% · other way -2.56% (n=8) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.1% hist -4.17–+1.32% · other way +3.67% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.1% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -4.4% | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -13.8% | 62% | 23 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -0.5% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| NG NG | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 45% | 35 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 41% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 43% | 40 | 0.00 | · |