What if Global synchronized upturn: world PMIs lift above 50 together?
A coordinated easing cycle lifts global PMIs back above 50 in unison, a synchronized upturn that boosts trade, commodities and worldwide risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A coordinated easing cycle lifts global PMIs back above 50 in unison, a synchronized upturn that boosts trade, commodities and worldwide risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -4.26–+13.39% · other way -2.01% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -2.69–+1.66% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.07–+0.51% · other way +0.64% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.62–+2.5% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.07–+3.31% · other way +2.64% (n=7) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.54–+0.74% · other way +11.03% (n=11) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.51–+0.22% · other way +1.22% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.08–+0.92% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.09–+0.32% · other way +0.78% (n=11) |
| 11 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.47–+0.44% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.45–+1.59% · other way +0.26% (n=11) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.67–+12.21% · other way -9.52% (n=3) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.94–+3.56% · other way +0.74% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 73% | 38 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 73% | 38 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 63% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 63% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.9% | 63% | 38 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.8% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.7% | 61% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.3% · 5d +2.0% | 56% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |