What if a second global yen-carry unwind hits?
A synchronized carry unwind dumping MXN, INR and US tech together is a pure deleveraging cascade: short the highest-beta funded longs (SOL, ETH, Nasdaq) and the carry EMs against a surging yen. This is the Aug-2024 unwind generalized across the carry book, where peso and tech sold in lockstep as JPY shorts covered. Transmission is mechanical via prime-broker margin, not fundamentals. Forward angle: a faster, more crowded crypto-as-carry-vehicle channel than 2024 means crypto leads the drawdown this time.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the Imminent horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sudden yen surge forces leveraged funds to dump Mexican peso, Indian rupee and US tech in a synchronized deleveraging. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -12.19–+3.62% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -7.18–+1.09% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -12.93–+2.94% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.3–-0.15% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -9.8–+1.47% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.16–+0.85% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.53–-0.23% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.37–+0.06% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -6.3–+4.21% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 11 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.58–+0.37% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 12 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.34–+0.15% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.77–-0.01% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 14 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.48–+1.04% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on SMH/TSM: their +4% history is the 2023 bank-rescue relief rally plus AI-capex bid, channels that won't hold in a forced synchronized carry-deleveraging — history is regime-biased.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.5% · 5d -7.9% | 77% | 13 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.9% · 5d -5.7% | 80% | 15 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.9% · 5d -4.5% | 71% | 21 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.6% | 70% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -3.0% | 67% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 68% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 63% | 38 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 31 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
Why this probability
Carry unwinds recur (2024-08) but 'imminent' synchronized blow-up needs a trigger; lower. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.