What if Gold demand surges as negative real yields return?
A return to negative real yields via cuts and sticky inflation revives gold's core bull case; the metal trends to new records as the opportunity cost vanishes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A return to negative real yields via cuts and sticky inflation revives gold's core bull case; the metal trends to new records as the opportunity cost vanishes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.21–+0.75% · other way +2.08% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.41–+0.37% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.58–+0.53% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.92–+8.43% · other way +14.67% (n=12) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -5.1–+11.07% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 6 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -5.18–+15.92% · other way -1.6% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.54–+1.54% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 8 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.55–+1.12% · other way -4.72% (n=11) |
| 9 | Robinhood HOODon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.3–+3.39% · other way +13.8% (n=11) |
| 10 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.36–+1.28% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.86–+0.58% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.25–+0.8% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.13–+6.45% · other way +14.19% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -8.5% | 72% | 17 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +4bp | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.0% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.8% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 38 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.0% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 48% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |