What if Graduate-hiring freeze hits consulting, banking and law analyst classes?
Professional-services firms shrink entry-level analyst and associate intakes as AI does first-draft work, freezing the on-ramp for new graduates; the youth white-collar shock dents discretionary demand and consumer-credit quality.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Professional-services firms shrink entry-level analyst and associate intakes as AI does first-draft work, freezing the on-ramp for new graduates; the youth white-collar shock dents discretionary demand and consumer-credit quality. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -11.8–+1.29% · other way -1.54% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.78–+12.31% · other way +21.92% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.54–-0.09% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.83–+1.73% · other way +2.81% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.3–+0.84% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.29–+1.46% · other way +2.3% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.59–-0.04% · other way +4.82% (n=12) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.48–-0.05% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–+0.15% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.21–-0.1% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.33–+4.18% · other way +16.32% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.61–+1.04% · other way +1.8% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -4.9% | 76% | 37 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 72% | 40 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -3.8% | 64% | 37 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.8% · 5d +1.1% | 59% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.4% | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.2% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |