What if a collapse floods Freeport's Grasberg copper-gold mine?
A Grasberg mud rush halting Indonesia's largest copper-gold mine for a year removes a major concentrate block — copper and Freeport move directly on the supply hit (and gold byproduct loss). This is the literal Sep-2025 Grasberg event in the analogues, which tightened the concentrate market and supported Comex copper. Forward angle: with TC/RCs already collapsing toward zero, a Grasberg outage stacks on smelter feed scarcity, amplifying the refined-copper squeeze beyond the headline concentrate loss.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A mud rush floods Freeport's Grasberg underground mine, halting Indonesia's largest copper-gold operation for over a year. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.