What if Indonesia bans nickel exports outright?
Jakarta extending its ban to nickel pig iron and intermediates forces stainless and battery makers to scramble for class-1 nickel and MHP — the move is nickel and stainless costs up, hitting Chinese mills; the semis/Nvidia legs in the cascade are mis-mapped. Rhymes with Indonesia's 2014 and 2020 ore bans that spiked nickel and forced Tsingshan's HPAL buildout. Forward angle: Indonesia now dominates global supply (>50%), so a downstream ban is a price weapon — but it also strands Chinese-owned Indonesian capacity, making this a China-vs-China squeeze more than a Western tech-chain hit.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Jakarta extends its ore ban to nickel pig iron and intermediates, forcing stainless and battery makers to scramble. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.