What if Indonesia bans nickel exports outright?
Jakarta extending its ban to nickel pig iron and intermediates forces stainless and battery makers to scramble for class-1 nickel and MHP — the move is nickel and stainless costs up, hitting Chinese mills; the semis/Nvidia legs in the cascade are mis-mapped. Rhymes with Indonesia's 2014 and 2020 ore bans that spiked nickel and forced Tsingshan's HPAL buildout. Forward angle: Indonesia now dominates global supply (>50%), so a downstream ban is a price weapon — but it also strands Chinese-owned Indonesian capacity, making this a China-vs-China squeeze more than a Western tech-chain hit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Jakarta extends its ore ban to nickel pig iron and intermediates, forcing stainless and battery makers to scramble. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.66–-0.3% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.67–-0.34% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.36–+1.01% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.4–+2.14% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.4–+1.03% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.81–+0.77% · other way -5.17% (n=8) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.62–+0.02% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.17–+1.1% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.32–+1.19% · other way +2.05% (n=9) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.39–+1.69% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.6–+0.05% · other way +12.35% (n=11) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.14–+1.77% · other way +2.4% (n=11) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–-0.09% · other way -0.17% (n=10) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.03–+1.35% · other way -0.53% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust history's FCX/XCU short: 12 recent, on-channel analogues (copper tariff, Liberation Day) faded; the cascade treats a nickel ban as copper-bullish, but realized metals history sells the macro shock.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -7.1% · 5d -2.9% | 89% | 17 | 0.73 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -0.7% | 72% | 14 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -0.6% | 72% | 14 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -0.7% | 72% | 14 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 14 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +9.2% · 5d +0.6% | 68% | 15 | 0.29 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 14 | 0.28 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -3.2% | 66% | 14 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 22 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 11 | 0.16 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +0bp | 58% | 22 | 0.15 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 14 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 14 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| XPD XPD | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.8% | 55% | 14 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Indonesia consistently moves up the value chain via bans; NPI/intermediate curbs fit the pattern over 18mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.