What if Greece's debt scare comes roaring back?
A populist Athens government suspending surplus targets reopens Grexit-tail pricing in GGBs — short Greek bonds/banks and watch periphery sympathy; the +4.5% VIX / -2.3% Nasdaq overstates US spillover. Rhymes with the 2015 Syriza standoff and capital controls that sent GGB yields soaring and threatened Grexit before the third bailout. Transmission: Greek banks (heavy GGB holders) and the periphery are the conduits; ECB eligibility is the swing factor. Forward angle: Greece's far smaller, ECB-eligible, post-bailout debt stock makes systemic contagion far less likely than 2012 — this is an idiosyncratic GGB event.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A populist Athens government suspends primary-surplus targets, reopening Grexit-tail pricing in GGBs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.