What if Grid-copper squeeze widens copper-vs-utility-cost dispersion?
A copper price squeeze lifts grid-build input costs faster than allowed-return adjustments, compressing some utility project economics while rewarding copper producers, widening sector dispersion.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A copper price squeeze lifts grid-build input costs faster than allowed-return adjustments, compressing some utility project economics while rewarding copper producers, widening sector dispersion. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.99–+2.62% · other way +7.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.12–+1.69% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.4–+4.38% · other way -6.23% (n=9) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.38–+2.33% · other way +2.96% (n=9) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.09–+1.23% · other way +21.27% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.41% · other way +1.25% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.57–+0.59% · other way +1.94% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.49–+0.19% · other way +9.98% (n=9) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -2.78–+7.81% · other way +4.9% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.67–+0.77% · other way +1.26% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.8–+5.61% · other way +4.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +8.1% · 5d +10.6% | 73% | 15 | 0.40 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 14 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -1.7% | 64% | 14 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -4.0% | 62% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.9% | 60% | 10 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 14 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.1% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 7 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -3.1% | 50% | 14 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +3bp | 49% | 23 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 49% | 24 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 49% | 24 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 50% | 14 | 0.00 | · |